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Www Subprimemortgagemorgage Tag Registration Time Subprime Mortgage Mortgage 美金:问题在于美金持续下跌，而不是其稳定下跌 - 《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版 - 博客大巴
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l Time searchmerica's main trading partners, the
dollar is little changed from where it was before August's tumult
began.
但是这一下跌至今为止并不是恐惧性卖出。虽然美元对主要货币指数已经下降到历史低点，但是从8月初的金融震荡起，美元下降还不到1.5%。如果与包括美国所有主要贸易伙伴的货币在内的更多货币相比较，与8月金融骚动前相比，美元几乎没有变化。
As the first signs of trouble emerged, the dollar even
rose. Far from fleeing greenbacks as the panic spread in mid-August,
investors initially flocked to them. To some analysts this confirmed
the dollar's status as a haven in troubled times. More likely, it was
the consequence of unwinding leveraged bets elsewhere. Dollar short
positions were cut sharply in August as investors reduced risk across
the board. David Woo, a currency strategist at Barclays Capital, says
the dollar got a temporary lift as investors unwound bets that the euro
would rise relative to the yen. Brad Setser, an analyst at RGE Monitor,
argues that European banks caught with asset-backed commercial paper
may have been buying dollars for fear of being unable to roll over the
short-term debt.
更有甚者，当金融危机的迹象刚出现时，美元还升值了。当金融恐慌在8月中扩散开来时，投资人不但没有逃离美元，最初反而涌
向美元。对于某些分析师，这证明了在危机时刻美金的安全地位。更有可能的是，这是由于从其他地方撤出借贷利差交易的结果。8月，由于投资者全面减少投资风
险，使得美元空头数量极具下降。巴克莱投资银行的货币分析师 David Woo说，当投资人减少欧元兑日元的汇差交易时，美元得到暂时升值。RGE
Monitor的分析师 Brad Setser则争辩这是由于那些陷入资产抵押商业债券的欧洲银行担心不能对其短期贷款重新筹资而买入美元。
Whatever the reason, the dollar's initial buoyancy did
not last. In recent weeks the greenback has slowly fallen and the
likely path of interest rates suggests there is more weakness to come.
Figures released on September 7th showed that America's economy lost
4,000 jobs in August, rather than creating the 100,000 odd that
forecasters had expected. Worse, the jobs figures for June and July
were revised down dramatically. These gloomy statistics suggested that
the economy was weakening well before the credit turmoil hit, and all
but sealed the case for a cut in short-term interest rates on September
18th, certainly of a quarter point, perhaps by as much as half a
percentage point.
不论何种原因，美元最初的上浮没有持续。在近几周，美元缓慢下跌，而且根据利率走向，美元还会继续走弱。9月7号报出的数
据表明美国经济在8月损失了4000个工作机会，而不是象预测的那样增加10万工作机会。更糟糕的是，6月及7月的就业数字也在修改后大幅下降。那些持悲
观观点的统计学家预计经济在信贷危机前就已经走弱，而这些都表明9月18日联储会将削减利率0.25%，也可能是0.5%。
A series of speeches by Fed officials this week did
little to dispel the presumption of lower rates. With Jean-Claude
Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, hinting strongly that
euro-zone interest rates might rise again this year, it is no surprise
that the dollar has hit new lows against the euro.
本周，一系列联储会的官员的讲话也没有打消降息的假设。而欧洲中央银行的总裁Jean-Claude Trichet多次暗示欧元区的利率今年内还可能增加，这使得美元兑欧元达到新低并非意外。
Its path against the yen is harder to foresee. Japan's
economy, too, seems to be in a spot of bother, with output falling in
the second quarter according to figures released on September 10th.
Though Japan's statistics are notoriously volatile, these figures make
it much less likely that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in
a hurry. That suggests the carry-trade (selling borrowed yen to invest
elsewhere) will remain attractive, limiting the yen's rise.
美元兑日元的前景很难看清。日本的经济看起来也令人担心，在9月10日公布的数据中，第二季度的产出下降。虽然众所周知日
本的数据通常是起伏很大，但是这些数据使得日本中央银行近期加息的可能大大降低了。而这使得利差交易（卖出借入的日元，到其他地方投资）仍然吸引人，限制
了日元的上升。
The doomsday scenario悲观观点
For true dollar pessimists, these cyclical
considerations are only part of the story. Far more important, they
argue, is the risk that the private investors and central banks that
have been funding America's gaping current-account deficit become
permanently less keen on dollar assets.
对于那些真正对美元持悲观态度的人来讲，这些对经济循环的考虑仅是故事的一部分。他们说，美国日益扩大的经常账户赤字是由私有投资人及中央银行资助的。更为重要的是，那类当他们不再独爱美元资产时所会产生的风险。
Ken Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, and a
dollar bear, argues that America's image as a great financial centre
has been tarnished by the subprime mess. The “mystique” that has
allowed America to borrow lavishly and cheaply has suffered a blow. The
result, he argues, must be a lower dollar and higher interest rates in
America relative to the rest of the world.
哈佛大学的经济学家及美元悲观论者Ken Rogoff说，美国的伟大金融中心形象已经被次级房贷的乱局搞砸了。美国人那种能够毫无顾忌借款并便宜借款的“魅力”被破坏了。他说，结果肯定是美元下降，及比世界其他地方更高的利率。
Indeed, the complex structured-debt products that
investors now shun have been an important source of financing for
America's current-account deficit. In 2006 foreign investors, on net,
bought some $400 billion of corporate-issued debt (including
mortgage-backed securities not guaranteed by the government-sponsored
housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). That is the equivalent of
around half the current-account deficit.
真的，那些结构复杂的债务产品已经是美国经常账户赤字的重要资金来源，而目前投资人尽量避免他们。在2006年，外国投资
人净买入4000亿美金公司发行的债务（其中包括了没有被政府资助的房贷巨头Fannie Mae及Freddie
Mac担保的房贷抵押债券）。这个数字等同于美国经常账户赤字的一半。
It is hard to know what share of this debt was
asset-backed, let alone mortgage-backed. A survey by the Treasury
department in mid-2006 suggests some 30% of the stock of corporate debt
held by foreigners was (then) in the form of asset-backed securities
and a little over half of that was mortgage-related. Those numbers are
big enough that foreign flight from the mortgage-backed market, if not
countered by eager buying of other types of American assets, could
cause trouble for the dollar.
人们很难分清楚贷款里那些是资产抵押的，更不用说分清那些是房贷抵押的了。财政部在2006年中的调查表明外国人持有的公
司债券中有30%（那时候）是由资产抵押的债券，并且有差不多一半是由房贷抵押的。这个数字已经足够大了，当外国人逃离房贷抵押市场时，如果没有买入其他
类型的美国资产的动力来替代的话，就会对美元造成威胁。
The lesson of the past few weeks, however, is that this
is unlikely to happen all of a sudden. And if private investors fret,
central banks may well pick up the slack. The latest statistics from
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggest that central banks have
been reducing their holdings of dollars since August. But that may be
an aberration since several central banks, such as Russia's, had to dip
into their reserves to support their own currencies. Mr Setser points
out that over the past few years central banks have consistently acted
as a buffer to falling private demand for dollar assets. If private
demand for dollars dwindles too fast, he expects the same thing to
happen again.
然而，过去几周的经验是这些不可能在一起突然发生。即使私人投资人担忧，那些中央银行也会多买入，成为缓冲。联储会纽约银
行的最新调查数据表明那些中央银行已经从8月起减持美元。但是这也可能是超常规行为，因为许多中央银行，例如俄国中央银行，必须将钱回流入其本国货币。
Setser先生指出在过去几年里，当私有投资人对美元资产需求下降时，那些中央银行一直起着缓冲作用。如果私有投资人对美元需求急剧下降，他预期这种缓
冲作用还会出现。
China, in particular, has little to gain from a dollar
crash. With domestic inflation now at a ten-year high, China's
politicians may be willing to let the yuan rise somewhat faster against
the dollar. But they are unlikely to add to a rout, not least because
that would make their exports much less competitive in America.
特别是美元下降不会给以中国任何好处。随着国内通胀达到10年来的高峰，中国的政客或许会让人民币对美元的升值加快一些。但是这些政客看来不会对美元落井下石，起码这会削弱中国出口产品在美国的竞争力。
Another argument against a sudden crash is that the
dollar is already quite cheap. In real effective terms, it has slowly
fallen by some 20% since its recent peak in 2002. That decline is
already helping to shrink America's external deficit. Monthly trade
figures for July showed exports growing at a 14% annual rate, whereas
imports grew by 5%. This differential, notes Jim O'Neill of Goldman
Sachs, is the biggest in years. Add in the probability of sharply
slower domestic demand in America, and the current-account deficit
could shrink a fair bit over the coming months. A smaller need for
foreign funds would itself put a floor under the dollar.
另一种反对美元会迅速贬值的观点是基于美元价值已经很低了。用实际有效汇率衡量，美元已经从其最近的2002年峰值下滑了
20%。这个下降已经帮助美国减少其外部（国际收支平衡）赤字。7月的贸易数字表明出口正在以14%的年增长率增加，而进口仅增加5%。这个差额，据高盛
公司的Jim
O'Neill的讲法是近年来最大的。如果加上突然变缓的美国国内需求的可能性，经常账户赤字在今后几个月内会下降一定幅度。而对于外国资金需求的减少也
会使美元止跌。
All told, the doom-mongers' script may play out in
reverse. Instead of a financial crisis prompting a dollar crash, it may
accelerate the unwinding of the imbalances that had the worrywarts so
unnerved in the first place.
所有这些，那些宣传世界末日的脚本可能会反过来了。金融危机不但没有促进美元贬值，它却加速减少那些杞人忧天的人日夜担心的收支不平衡。